People Transforming Communities
America's Industrial Future: Questions for Futurists
Presented by Frank Sowa, Pittsburgh, PA area
Forward by Rick Smyre:
Thought you would like to see Frank Sowa's thoughts and how he uses surveying the opinion of other peers who are futurists to help evolve a new framework of thinking. This is a technique (modified Delphi) that communities could use to help them identify evolving weak signals as well as be helped in developing a futures context within which decisions, processes and strategies can be designed.
The economic problems (beyond financials) need to be handled as part
of a wholistic solution to begin a new 21st Century growth cycle.
Thus, my Chronometrics model is looking for a number of key factors
which include, but are not limited to ...
The market (a closed fluid-flow system) must hit a bottom in the
7,800 range before it turns upward. I believe based on my data watch
that will occur in late February 2009. Also, watch the growing value
of the US dollar which has increased in value by 22% since the
downturn began in February 2008 (12% July through October) --
according to my data modeling, when the dollar moves 10-15% higher in
value against the international currencies and especially the Euro,
the Yen, the Pound, and the Deutschmark, the economic problems will
begin to dematerialize and credit will improve at all levels. This
could move the timing up from February, or could slow the timing if
it doesn't occur quickly. In business, this, of course, will also
favor domestic versus globalized company operations, so those
companies that are moving offshoring home the quickest, companies
like Garmin, Dominion Resources, Allegheny Technologies, Comcast,
Harley Davison, Fluor Corp., BE Aerospace, and Harris Corp. will do
better as stock picks that rely more heavily on performing industrial
production and fabrication elsewhere. Furthermore, since the elderly
investors, and the Bush Administration are so fixed on the banks and
financials, those with the strongest domestic portfolio, short term,
will fare much better than the monster banks like Citicorp and Chase
in the banking and financial sectors.
------------------
Anyway, as always I'd appreciate your inputs on this, and of course,
if you are doing any work in these areas, I'd like to get involved.
This is just an overview, as things progress to article and
potentially book stages the comprehensive data I've gleaned will fill
in a lot of blanks. However, I know you all appreciate thinking on
the future event horizon. Few have thought these processes through!
NOTICED SIGNIFICANT TREND POINTS IN INDUSTRIAL MANUFACTURING AND
FABRICATING:
1) The Green Economy, Alternative Energy Sourcing, and the Water Table
For the next ten years there will be a massive investment undertaken
in supporting a more sustainable green economy, creating jobs, and
economic opportunities.
This growth will be focused around a greener infrastructure (both
transportation and IT technologies) -- making buildings and
infrastructures more energy-efficient by retrofitting (increases real
estate valuation by 20-40%); expanding electrical-grid mass transit,
and greener freight-rail; constructing "smart" electrical grids that
also carry the Internet and provide broadband technologies, and would
better manage power demands; constructing "smart" roadbeds that use
the potential energy created by moving heavy vehicles to create clean-
energy for the energy grid; increasing the use of alternative
energies -- nuclear, wind, solar, new aluminum-foil type coating
solar cells, hydro (never talked about much but according to a 1975
study done by my dad for NASA and the power industry could provide up
to 20% of domestic power by retrofitting ancient but existing micro-
damways with lightweight aerospace composite hyrdoturbine impellers
on all the little creeks and rivers -- Study AIAA - NASA Glenn,
1975), geothermal, desalinization and oceanic and deep lake wave-to-
energy conversion systems, natural gas liquefaction, coal
gasification, coal slurry, offshore oil drilling, propane, steam-
generation, scramjet and airborne technologies taht can convert wind-
speed into energy, garbage biofuel plants, biodiesel, ethanol, and
developing next-generation biofuels, etc. Finally, clean water and
water sources need to be placed into strategic reserves -- just as we
do with foreign oil for national security today. Humans need clean
drinkable water to exist. Thus -- energy -- clean air -- clean water.
(Note the absence of the word "environmentalism.")
2) Nanotechnology, Composites, Dyes and Printing, Manufacturing and
Fabricating
Futurists have discussed nanotechnology since the 1980's. College
researchers have expressed how material science and nanocomponents
will have an effect on every production industry beginning now, and
lasting through the 21st Century. The world is leading this nano-
drive now, as the US over the last eight years minimized the
importance of science for much of anything except security. There has
been a tremendous amount written about the biotechnological usage of
this nano-technology, and has been some minor mention of how it is
affecting all industrial manufacturing, and is even seen as a
national security issue. I don't intend to rehash any of this.
Rather, I am more interested how this material science technology
will lead manufacturing production and how the US can maintain a
global lead in this. Manufacturers (especially the automakers, and
companies like Lanxess, BASF, PPG, and Bayer) all are increasing the
use of composites in car manufacturing to increase the miles-per-
gallon. Aerospace and defense, likewise are increasing the use of
composites. Composites are synthetic materials (plastics in the
broadest scientific nomenclature) that combine raw metals, petroleum
products, ceramics, and fibrous products. Their processing is
additive, and as composites based on nanotechnology replace 98% of
all building and manufacturing materials -- this change which will
greatly increase energy efficiency and environmental requirements as
well as work better with Just-in-time processes thereby saving
manufacturers billions yearly -- will have a profound effect (the
additive aspect) on how all processing plants are thought out
worldwide, and on how the supporting suppliers will need to be
selected. There will be a greatly diminished need for tool and die
machinists, lathe operators, cutters, continuous casters of the old
20th Century methods, millers, smithers, etc. These processes were
all based on beginning with a solid and cutting and shaping that
solid down to the desired shape. This will still be done, but it will
represent a much smaller component of the production line. Rather
"assembly lines" will operate more like printers -- a new paradigm,
altering even the engineering and educational system dramatically.
Carbon-strings or composite filaments (like those used in carbon-
shafts for golf clubs and modern fiberglass processes) will become
one of the processed starting points, and layers will be built (like
in kevlar production); or powdered metals and composites will be
poured (like in the aluminum molds for the Apple Macbook), or the
titanium aircraft struts for the FA-18 fighter); in clothing, the
synthetics processes will be more like those used by Nike, Under
Armor, and P&G Huggies. Dyes and printing likewise will be altered by
nano-technology and composites, and may be able to conduct
electricity. Thus, the manufacturing plant of the 21st Century needs
to be totally rethought -- as does the assembly and fabrication
processes to be deployed. This will have a dramatic affect on the
growing countries like China that have efficiently deployed 20th
Century manufacturing processes. When the effect will begin to be
noticed and the event horizon leading to it remains a major question
(and of course how the new paradigm will be effected by
capitalization and global versus domestic regulation, capitalism, and
availability of liquid assets for such change and growth).
3) Biotechnology, Healthcare, Aging, and Wonder Pharmaceuticals
4) Small Business, the Service Economy, the Consumer Economy and its
effects on Industrialism
5) National Security, Terrorism, Defense and their effect on
Industrialism and capability for capitalization
6) UAV's, Robotics, Networks, knowledge economics, Enterprise
Management, Customer Care and how the infrastructure changes will
alter industrialism
7) Agriculture, Food Sources, Agri-processing, and Food Supply Chain
and how they will affect industrialism
8) Space (zero gravity and other planet resources and processes) and
Aerospace (inclusive of airships, etc.) and how it affects industrialism
... and finally ...
9) Gravity, Magnetism, Dark Matter, Physics and the increasing
knowledge impact and its effect on industrialism
The point is that we are continuing through a dynamic and major
paradigm shift, that the public with its blinded knowledge base based
on the old systemics -- is basically saying that we no longer live in
the Industrial era, much as the horseless carriage people said that
animal carts with a horse team were the past agricultural economy at
the beginning of the industrial age. Things are changing 180 degrees,
but it is NOT an END, unless "Joe the plumber" cannot be made to
understand the change, and that the rest of the world is too focused
on the immediate fires and making greedily more money at the expense
of a future.
Forward by Rick Smyre:
Thought you would like to see Frank Sowa's thoughts and how he uses surveying the opinion of other peers who are futurists to help evolve a new framework of thinking. This is a technique (modified Delphi) that communities could use to help them identify evolving weak signals as well as be helped in developing a futures context within which decisions, processes and strategies can be designed.
The economic problems (beyond financials) need to be handled as part
of a wholistic solution to begin a new 21st Century growth cycle.
Thus, my Chronometrics model is looking for a number of key factors
which include, but are not limited to ...
The market (a closed fluid-flow system) must hit a bottom in the
7,800 range before it turns upward. I believe based on my data watch
that will occur in late February 2009. Also, watch the growing value
of the US dollar which has increased in value by 22% since the
downturn began in February 2008 (12% July through October) --
according to my data modeling, when the dollar moves 10-15% higher in
value against the international currencies and especially the Euro,
the Yen, the Pound, and the Deutschmark, the economic problems will
begin to dematerialize and credit will improve at all levels. This
could move the timing up from February, or could slow the timing if
it doesn't occur quickly. In business, this, of course, will also
favor domestic versus globalized company operations, so those
companies that are moving offshoring home the quickest, companies
like Garmin, Dominion Resources, Allegheny Technologies, Comcast,
Harley Davison, Fluor Corp., BE Aerospace, and Harris Corp. will do
better as stock picks that rely more heavily on performing industrial
production and fabrication elsewhere. Furthermore, since the elderly
investors, and the Bush Administration are so fixed on the banks and
financials, those with the strongest domestic portfolio, short term,
will fare much better than the monster banks like Citicorp and Chase
in the banking and financial sectors.
------------------
Anyway, as always I'd appreciate your inputs on this, and of course,
if you are doing any work in these areas, I'd like to get involved.
This is just an overview, as things progress to article and
potentially book stages the comprehensive data I've gleaned will fill
in a lot of blanks. However, I know you all appreciate thinking on
the future event horizon. Few have thought these processes through!
NOTICED SIGNIFICANT TREND POINTS IN INDUSTRIAL MANUFACTURING AND
FABRICATING:
1) The Green Economy, Alternative Energy Sourcing, and the Water Table
For the next ten years there will be a massive investment undertaken
in supporting a more sustainable green economy, creating jobs, and
economic opportunities.
This growth will be focused around a greener infrastructure (both
transportation and IT technologies) -- making buildings and
infrastructures more energy-efficient by retrofitting (increases real
estate valuation by 20-40%); expanding electrical-grid mass transit,
and greener freight-rail; constructing "smart" electrical grids that
also carry the Internet and provide broadband technologies, and would
better manage power demands; constructing "smart" roadbeds that use
the potential energy created by moving heavy vehicles to create clean-
energy for the energy grid; increasing the use of alternative
energies -- nuclear, wind, solar, new aluminum-foil type coating
solar cells, hydro (never talked about much but according to a 1975
study done by my dad for NASA and the power industry could provide up
to 20% of domestic power by retrofitting ancient but existing micro-
damways with lightweight aerospace composite hyrdoturbine impellers
on all the little creeks and rivers -- Study AIAA - NASA Glenn,
1975), geothermal, desalinization and oceanic and deep lake wave-to-
energy conversion systems, natural gas liquefaction, coal
gasification, coal slurry, offshore oil drilling, propane, steam-
generation, scramjet and airborne technologies taht can convert wind-
speed into energy, garbage biofuel plants, biodiesel, ethanol, and
developing next-generation biofuels, etc. Finally, clean water and
water sources need to be placed into strategic reserves -- just as we
do with foreign oil for national security today. Humans need clean
drinkable water to exist. Thus -- energy -- clean air -- clean water.
(Note the absence of the word "environmentalism.")
2) Nanotechnology, Composites, Dyes and Printing, Manufacturing and
Fabricating
Futurists have discussed nanotechnology since the 1980's. College
researchers have expressed how material science and nanocomponents
will have an effect on every production industry beginning now, and
lasting through the 21st Century. The world is leading this nano-
drive now, as the US over the last eight years minimized the
importance of science for much of anything except security. There has
been a tremendous amount written about the biotechnological usage of
this nano-technology, and has been some minor mention of how it is
affecting all industrial manufacturing, and is even seen as a
national security issue. I don't intend to rehash any of this.
Rather, I am more interested how this material science technology
will lead manufacturing production and how the US can maintain a
global lead in this. Manufacturers (especially the automakers, and
companies like Lanxess, BASF, PPG, and Bayer) all are increasing the
use of composites in car manufacturing to increase the miles-per-
gallon. Aerospace and defense, likewise are increasing the use of
composites. Composites are synthetic materials (plastics in the
broadest scientific nomenclature) that combine raw metals, petroleum
products, ceramics, and fibrous products. Their processing is
additive, and as composites based on nanotechnology replace 98% of
all building and manufacturing materials -- this change which will
greatly increase energy efficiency and environmental requirements as
well as work better with Just-in-time processes thereby saving
manufacturers billions yearly -- will have a profound effect (the
additive aspect) on how all processing plants are thought out
worldwide, and on how the supporting suppliers will need to be
selected. There will be a greatly diminished need for tool and die
machinists, lathe operators, cutters, continuous casters of the old
20th Century methods, millers, smithers, etc. These processes were
all based on beginning with a solid and cutting and shaping that
solid down to the desired shape. This will still be done, but it will
represent a much smaller component of the production line. Rather
"assembly lines" will operate more like printers -- a new paradigm,
altering even the engineering and educational system dramatically.
Carbon-strings or composite filaments (like those used in carbon-
shafts for golf clubs and modern fiberglass processes) will become
one of the processed starting points, and layers will be built (like
in kevlar production); or powdered metals and composites will be
poured (like in the aluminum molds for the Apple Macbook), or the
titanium aircraft struts for the FA-18 fighter); in clothing, the
synthetics processes will be more like those used by Nike, Under
Armor, and P&G Huggies. Dyes and printing likewise will be altered by
nano-technology and composites, and may be able to conduct
electricity. Thus, the manufacturing plant of the 21st Century needs
to be totally rethought -- as does the assembly and fabrication
processes to be deployed. This will have a dramatic affect on the
growing countries like China that have efficiently deployed 20th
Century manufacturing processes. When the effect will begin to be
noticed and the event horizon leading to it remains a major question
(and of course how the new paradigm will be effected by
capitalization and global versus domestic regulation, capitalism, and
availability of liquid assets for such change and growth).
3) Biotechnology, Healthcare, Aging, and Wonder Pharmaceuticals
4) Small Business, the Service Economy, the Consumer Economy and its
effects on Industrialism
5) National Security, Terrorism, Defense and their effect on
Industrialism and capability for capitalization
6) UAV's, Robotics, Networks, knowledge economics, Enterprise
Management, Customer Care and how the infrastructure changes will
alter industrialism
7) Agriculture, Food Sources, Agri-processing, and Food Supply Chain
and how they will affect industrialism
8) Space (zero gravity and other planet resources and processes) and
Aerospace (inclusive of airships, etc.) and how it affects industrialism
... and finally ...
9) Gravity, Magnetism, Dark Matter, Physics and the increasing
knowledge impact and its effect on industrialism
The point is that we are continuing through a dynamic and major
paradigm shift, that the public with its blinded knowledge base based
on the old systemics -- is basically saying that we no longer live in
the Industrial era, much as the horseless carriage people said that
animal carts with a horse team were the past agricultural economy at
the beginning of the industrial age. Things are changing 180 degrees,
but it is NOT an END, unless "Joe the plumber" cannot be made to
understand the change, and that the rest of the world is too focused
on the immediate fires and making greedily more money at the expense
of a future.
Replies to This Discussion
-
Permalink Reply by Bruce LaDuke on -
Mark,
I am trying to build interest in Indiana to participate in this modified Delphi:
http://export.writer.zoho.com/public/knowledgemachine/Indiana-SOFI-...
It's very difficult to get the right people involved. Lot's of political challenges.
-
Permalink Reply by Bruce LaDuke on
-
Wanted to add that we were wanting to use the tool below as a Delphi, so it's a combination of State of the Future Index (SOFI) and Delphi.
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